Is a Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score below zero a buy signal?

It describes a state in which the average holder is under water, which has coincided with cycle bottoms, but it has also lasted for months while the price kept falling. It is context, not a decision.

What is the difference between the MVRV ratio and the MVRV Z-Score?

The ratio is market cap divided by realised cap. The Z-Score is market cap less realised cap, divided by the standard deviation of market cap, which makes cycles of different sizes comparable.

How often is the MVRV Z-Score updated?

One figure is published per day after the UTC close. The page reads the series on load and hourly, so the latest reading is usually yesterday's.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

How far Bitcoin's market value sits above or below what holders paid, in standard deviations. Above 7 has marked every top, below 0 every bottom.

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Z-Score

MVRV ratio

Market cap

Realised cap

Today's readingBelow 0 has marked every cycle bottom, above 7 every cycle top

Below cost basisunder 0 Fair0 to 2 Elevated2 to 4 Stretched4 to 7 Overheated7 and above

Z-Score against the Bitcoin priceBelow 0 and above 7 shaded, price on a log scale

Window

MVRV Z-Scoreleft axis Bitcoin priceright axis, log Above 7overheated, every cycle top Below 0under cost basis, every cycle bottom

Hover anywhere on the chart for the score, the price and the market and realised caps on that day

Zones and what followedBitcoin's return 90 days and a year after each day in a zone

Zone	Share of days	Median 90d	Median 1y	Positive at 1y
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A description of the past, not a forecast. Consecutive days are not independent, and the record holds four cycles.

The extremesEvery stay above 7, and every stay below 0 of five days or more

Zone	Dates	Days	Peak Z	BTC then	1y after
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Peak Z is the most extreme reading in the stay; the price and the one-year return are taken from that day.

About this data

Updated Sep 2026

Figures are shown as the source publishes them, and anything we calculate is explained below. How the data is made Report an error General information, not financial advice.

What the Z-Score measures

Every bitcoin was last moved at some price. Add those up across all coins and you have the realised capitalisation: what the current holders, in aggregate, paid. Market capitalisation is what the coins are worth now. The difference between the two is the unrealised profit or loss sitting in the network, and the MVRV Z-Score expresses that difference in standard deviations of market cap, so a reading of 7 in 2021 is comparable to a reading of 7 in 2013 despite the price being a hundred times higher.

The score is useful because holders behave differently depending on whether they are deep in profit or under water. Far above realised value, sellers have every reason to realise gains and the market has historically been near a top. Below it, the average holder is losing money, selling has usually been exhausted, and the market has historically been near a bottom.

How to read it

Above 7 has marked every cycle top: 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021. It has never been a precise day, but the market has not stayed there long, and a year later the price has been lower each time.
Below 0 has marked every cycle bottom: Market cap under realised cap means the average coin is held at a loss. Those stays have been short and have preceded the best entries in the record.
The middle is where most of the time is spent: Between 0 and 4 the score says the market is in profit but not extended. Read the direction and the price together rather than the level alone.
Peaks have been getting lower: 10.7 in 2013, 10.1 in 2017, 7.2 in 2021, 3.4 in 2024. A larger, deeper market moves fewer standard deviations. A future top may not reach 7.

What it cannot tell you

It is a Bitcoin measure. It says nothing about any other asset, and nothing about the timing of the next move within a zone.
The zone boundaries are conventions drawn from four cycles. Nothing forces the fifth to respect them, and the falling peaks suggest it may not.
Realised cap counts coins that were lost years ago at the price they last moved. That understates what active holders paid, and the effect is not constant over time.
Standard deviations are only as good as the history they are drawn from. An expanding window means the score's scale changes slowly as the record lengthens.

Not investment advice

The Z-Score describes where the market sits relative to what holders paid. It does not say what happens next. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Questions

Is a score below zero a buy signal?

It describes a state in which the average holder is under water, and in the record so far that state has coincided with cycle bottoms. It has also lasted for months while the price kept falling. The zone table gives the distribution of what followed; use it as context, not as the decision.

Why does your number differ slightly from other sites?

Realised cap is estimated from the blockchain and each provider does it a little differently, and some use a sample rather than a population deviation. The differences are small and the shape of the series is the same. This page states its construction so you can compare.

What is the MVRV ratio, as opposed to the Z-Score?

The ratio is market cap divided by realised cap: 2 means the market is worth twice what holders paid. The Z-Score is the difference between the two in standard deviations, which makes cycles of different sizes comparable. The ratio is shown in the header for reference.

How often does it update?

One figure is published per day after the UTC close. This page reads the series on load and again every hour, so the latest reading is usually yesterday's.